Drivers of Cycling Mode-share: Analysis of Danes Travel Behavior 1996-2013

Denmark, as Europes second cycling nation after the Netherlands, has a cycling mode share of around 15% of all trips. Cycling was decreasing slowly through the 1990s into the 2000s, which inspired substantial investments and promotional efforts to reverse the trend. This paper uses Danish micro-level travel survey data series from 1996 through 2013 to analyze the trend in cycling as main or access mode, as well as the significance of background variables representing key spatial and societal trends. The analysis confirms that the general trend in cycling from 1996 to 2013 was negative irrespective of statistical control for socio-economics, ageing, location, urban density, and weather. Results points to an increasing significance of population density over time as well as changes to the effect of location vis-à-vis the largest urban centers. The difference in cycling between central areas and more peripheral areas is growing. Other changes include a decreasing ‘income divide’ in cycling as well as a decreasing retirement effect. Results are presented and discussed.

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